Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 32.332253 38.359702 44.961627 52.698568 61.484735 71.119630 82.450597
2025-02-02 24.896258 33.285033 43.348330 56.168788 71.914685 90.464069 113.796490
2025-02-09 20.012448 29.387010 41.447646 57.796125 79.039389 105.348792 139.991220
2025-02-16 16.507326 26.311177 39.704917 58.826524 84.841341 118.371225 164.129109
2025-02-23 13.579769 23.380968 37.536822 58.716181 88.726161 128.768940 185.112399
2025-03-02 11.036842 20.501663 34.928315 57.492804 90.696245 136.425273 202.568282
2025-03-09 9.261998 18.473497 33.229714 57.254791 93.813247 145.576850 222.253055
2025-03-16 7.236855 15.634642 29.847135 54.014357 92.124732 147.675673 232.018344
2025-03-23 6.446692 14.823179 29.610982 55.593784 97.666650 160.312436 257.145212
2025-03-30 5.388790 13.303984 27.957131 54.652891 99.146203 166.933136 273.735654
2025-04-06 5.009726 13.056410 28.494133 57.382664 106.556038 182.725389 304.391514
2025-04-13 3.902714 11.060444 25.560411 53.805477 103.405466 182.122105 310.383868
2025-04-20 3.466739 10.531514 25.491970 55.585278 109.745890 197.342058 342.285087
2025-04-27 3.241452 10.467310 26.368394 59.243073 119.649354 218.904801 385.251830
2025-05-04 2.869475 9.948481 26.228123 60.944202 126.228385 235.393909 420.938080
2025-05-11 2.502051 9.342705 25.802716 62.020035 131.721096 250.310304 454.674485
2025-05-18 2.110203 8.554288 24.843004 61.904851 134.996314 261.631644 483.017927
2025-05-25 1.716073 7.628493 23.405709 60.627621 135.973450 269.040647 505.199380
2025-06-01 1.440041 6.978930 22.513381 60.379104 138.827230 279.734196 533.123491
2025-06-08 1.079906 5.890328 20.309705 56.994838 135.310838 279.054859 541.908241
2025-06-15 0.967416 5.672729 20.350228 58.644570 141.832672 296.431517 581.853179
2025-06-22 0.785659 5.098287 19.306939 57.661841 142.945011 304.076497 605.339365
2025-06-29 0.738392 5.083969 19.857435 60.512622 152.098061 326.734447 655.538405